A POLITICAL GAMBLE : CAN A THIRD FRONT SURVIVE ?

It was a surprising factor for me, when Mamata banerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal and the head of Trinamool Congress confirmed that she made a call to Bihar CM Nitish Kumar to discuss about a Third Front that she called, Federal Front. Interestingly this news flashed minutes after Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik Slammed Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi saying both have failed National figures and he too mentioned a Third front. Now, major questions arises, is there a free space for another alliance. Will leaving NDA affect Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal( united)? How long this alliance last, given that regional parties formed a government in 1996 under the leadership of Deve Gowda and the alliance broke within few days of its formation and the larger question is that who will lead this federal government in 2014? Will this minimize the political importance of both national parties, BJP and INC.

smile forever ?

It was left parties who introduced another idea of forming regional parties and do an experiment with it. But literally now, it is its Bengali rival TMC which put forward the idea of Federal front. It gives us a feeling that political space of Left parties are shrinking. So if a Third Front is formed, TMC, JD(U), SP and BJD might bite the bullet and lead the alliance. Many more regional parties including PDP from Kashmir, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha(JMM), Jharkhand Vikas Morcha(JVM), Tenlungu Desam Party (TDP), YSR Congress, DMK from Tamil Nadu, Asom Gana Pasishad (AGP), Janata Dal (secular) from Karnataka might join the alliance. This might make this alliance rather stronger and inclusive. But, lacking a common ideology, these alliances might get broken and this coalition might fall like what happed in 1996. This alliance may not get support from Bahujan Samajwadi Party and AIADMK.  Lack of a potential ally in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and north-east can damage the alliance. Samajwadi Party is suffering a serious credibility in Uttar Pradesh as it failed to address law and order issues in the state. Also, NaMo’s role at national stage may consolidate Hindu votes and the muslim vote may remain with them. JD(u) might get less votes as BJP will get maximum seats due to Hindutva poster boy Narendra Modi and RLD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav can bag some seats.

Game changer ?

On the other hand, in Maharashtra, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh, BJP and NDA seems to get an Upper edge over its rivals. In Maharashtra, BJP-Sena-MNS-RPI alliance, in Punjab SAD-BJP, in Madhya Pradesh BJP alone can uproot congress and its allies; also, third front has no representatives over the states. In Haryana, Indian National Lok Dal – Haryana Janahit congress – Bharatiya Janata Party can get considerable amount of seats and Delhi will witness a whitewash, as BJP with Modi magic get all 7 LS seats. In Rajastan Vasundhararaje Scindia magic will work in BJP’s favour. NDA won’t get into ally trouble in that region. In Jammu and Kashmir, National Conference might bag few seats, but PDP might get maximum seats and empower third Front and BJP is hopeful only in Hindu dominated Jammu region.

Hilly states like Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh might be a party spoiler for UPA as NDA will project NaMO and there is anti-incumbency against Congress in both state and in Centre. North-east states may witness a direct fight between UPA and Third front as Assam might remain with Congress while Naga People’s front allied with BJP can get one LS of Nagaland. Tripura might remain with Left. In west Bengal, TMC can get majority of seats but the story is not at all romantic. It is going to be a triangular fight between left, TMS and INC and winning majority is not that much easy and these is a growing fan base for NaMO in Bengal and BJD might too spoil their own pie as Hindu consolidation may happen in Odisha. AIADMK has expressed its willingness to join NDA lead by Narendra Modi. Congress may get support from LaLu Prasad Yadav as he cannot form alliance with his arch rival Nitish Kumar. It is important to check whether NCP will remain in UPA or join third Front.

can he survive ?

UPA may not get new alliances, as, the alliance is not expected to cross 120 seats across the country. It will face a complete wash out in North India. The Namo power will definitely work for BJP, with its hindutva allies it will be manage to cross 250 seats and can buy support from anyother regional party. As, Namo leads the party, VHP and RSS will set BJP its propaganda, it may well include the old Ram Temple at Ayodhya which can fetch Hindu Upper caste vote for them. Projecting Modi can well yield OBC votes for BJP in strategically important state like Uttar Pradesh, Rajastan, Madhya Pradesh and even in Bihar. While, Muslim vote may drift with Third Front, in some parts like Kerala and Karnataka it may rest with INC.  Sikhs will find it really difficult to vote for INC after acquittal of Sajjan Kumar and Jagdish Tytler. Therefore, caste equations go in favour of Sangh and NDA.

Where can Third front alias federal front find a political space?  The answer is yet to find. Formation of a government in 2014 finds to be a distinct dream but becoming the main opposition is perhaps achievable.  Presenting a national leader before the mass public will hurt them very much. They might not do well in urban areas as all these parties are going in the principles of old-Indian-village-saga. They might not get support from young India as these leaders never go viral on social media or does are tech savvies.  Something called ‘secularism’ cannot counter the corruption issues created by UPA. India has seen Pakistani soldiers beheading Indian Jawans and China’s intrusion on Ladakh regions. What India needs is a stronger politician who can deliver them what he is supposed to be. A leader who know the tradition and culture of this nation and pulse of Indian youth. As long as Third front fails to deliver a leader, forget about forming a government but think about bagging even 100 out of 543 seats which might not be an easy task for these politicians who don’t even know why they are allied.....