GUJARAT's GROWTH Vs MADHYA PRADESH's AGGRESSION

With lok sabha elections one year away (let’s assume) news channels are busy doing their opinion polls and predicting seats for existing and fictitious alliances. Top channels including CNN IBN and TIMES NOW conducted their opinion polls namely ‘election tracker’ and who ‘will form government’. All these surveys predict BJP getting maximum seats and NDA emerging as single largest alliance. Political pundits have forecasted a clean sweep for BJP in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajastan. Also BJP with existing allies getting majority of Maharashtra and Punjab. As per TIMES NOW survey Modi remains most popular figure for PM’s post, occupying 38% people’s vote. Rahul Gandhi with 18% and manmohan singh below him. News channels have done a tricky thing this time, to evoke Shiv Raj Singh’s name in the whole ‘MODI’ debate. Thus willing to create war between two tycoons within the sangh parivar. Both chief ministers did their job nicely and they are still popular even after 10 years of occupying power. Madhya Pradesh after poor administration from Digvijay Singh, saw some progress and development in Shiv Raj’s administration in MP. As the state elections are round the corner, there is no question of sangh losing MP.

As per the latest survey did by CNN IBN, Gujarat is expected to give maximum support to BJP, with BJP winning 20-24 seats out of 26 and congress thrashed with 2-6 seats. After 2009 LS polls BJP managed to win 15 and congress 11, but this time congress loose significantly. BJP is expected to get 54% vote share and congress 36 down 9% from last time. BJP with modi magic did nice work in the state, even after the disastrous 2001 bhuj earth quake, Gujarat witnessed drastic development under leadership of sangh. Also, BJP projecting Modi this time will polarise vote for them, even congress supporters finding it really hard, not to vote for MODI. In Madhya Pradesh BJP is expected to get 21-26 seats, and congress expected to get 2-6 and others 0-4 seats out of 29 LS seats. There ought to be a substantial decline in BSP vote share as the party will surely lose its OBC vote bank to BJP. As the lok sabha elections are contested between national parties, BSP with its minimal support cannot be a game changer this time. With BJP expected to bag 50% of votes up from 43 in previous LS polls and Congress losing to BJP and getting 34% vote share. Traditional hindu upper caste vote bank will support BJP this time too.

Thus BJP-fied states will kick congress out of the parliament. Even without proper alliance. Thus bagging 3/4^th of these states, BJP can emerge with almost 46 seats out of 55, BJP and the alliance is short of 226 seats. Bagging 40-45 seats in UP and improving the tally in Rajastan, Bihar and south India. South may give more allies to BJP. Thus prior to 2014 LS polls, these are chance for a debate over Gujarat’s growth and MP’s aggression. Common people will vote for the sustainability of model they prefer.