With Lok
Sabha (LS) elections just one year away, you can expect no party across the
globe to sit idle and curse its own fate, but Indian National Congress who
has served Independent India for almost 50 years and made this nation
incredible with ‘secularism’, has lost all its ground to address itself as a
front runner for 2014 LS polls. 9 years full of scams and economic mismanagement has made United
Progressive Alliance (UPA)’s face dirtier than before. They might have survived
the Emergency period, the anti-Sikh riots and Bofors scam. But this time the
party is expected to face high wave of anti-incumbency and the anger of frustrated
Indian youth who wish to see India as an emerging power. INC is expected to
face anger even in hard-core Congress states like Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and
Maharashtra. As the assembly elections are scheduled for 5 states later this
November, is there any chance for congress-revival? Can high command manage the
grass root politics? Will Rahul Magic work this time?
Let’s start
with my own home state, Kerala; here politics is all about flirty people alleging
opponents of having extra marital affairs and so called Secular nostalgia.
National politics have no space in this part of country. UPA’s agenda or
corruption issues may not amuse people here. All it matters here is the
communal division created by Congress led United Democratic Front which
includes a party called Muslim League, which is addressed as the most secular
party in this great nation. Congress for keeping this ally on board even
declared a cold war against Nair Service Society (NSS) which is a body comprising Hindu
Upper caste. They also teared into Sree Narayana Dharma Parishad (SNDP)
which is the
organisation of Hindu Caste called Ezhava. Communist Party of India(Marxist) is
expected to get majority among 20 lok sabha seats. Bharatiya Janata Party, who
haven’t even opened its account in state is expected to give a tough fight in
two Constituency, Thirivananthapuram and Kasargod. Narendra Modi effect is
expected to polarise Hindu votes. The political strategy of NSS and SNDP has
got its importance. Muslim and Christian votes may consolidate with Congress. Hindutva
politics may see an
uprising in the state as there is a feeling among the majority community that
the Congress government is forgetting the theory of equality while dealing with
them. Social media is less likely to play a role in rising youth’s voice. Rahul
Gandhi may have his impact on minorities might
Majority will review him as a
tragic figure.

In Delhi, Chief Minister Shiela dikshit is
expected to be on losing side this time. She won 3 times consistently, but this
time there is a certain amount of anti-incumbency. Delhi always represent
national mood and people connect over internet will find it really hard to vote
for INC. Aam aadmi Party is expected to remain silent this time. As Anna Hazare
is not amused with Kejriwal’s party and Baba Ramdev, Kiran Bedi favouring
NaMo, AAP will secure
few votes, but cannot become gamechangers. Polarisation is less likely to
happen as Communalism may not have relevance on the national capital,
development is the single best thing people may vote on and this is the single
best place where congress people failed to deliver. In Andhra
Pradesh YSR congress may
get the number but TRS might form alliance with BJP as NaMo supports telengana
state formation. Communal divisions caused by MIM may result in
reverse consolidation and TRS-BJP alliance can bring some seats and increase
its vote share.

No comments:
Post a Comment