With Lok
Sabha (LS) elections just one year away, you can expect no party across the
globe to sit idle and curse its own fate, but Indian National Congress who
has served Independent India for almost 50 years and made this nation
incredible with ‘secularism’, has lost all its ground to address itself as a
front runner for 2014 LS polls. 9 years full of scams and economic mismanagement has made United
Progressive Alliance (UPA)’s face dirtier than before. They might have survived
the Emergency period, the anti-Sikh riots and Bofors scam. But this time the
party is expected to face high wave of anti-incumbency and the anger of frustrated
Indian youth who wish to see India as an emerging power. INC is expected to
face anger even in hard-core Congress states like Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and
Maharashtra. As the assembly elections are scheduled for 5 states later this
November, is there any chance for congress-revival? Can high command manage the
grass root politics? Will Rahul Magic work this time?
Let’s start
with my own home state, Kerala; here politics is all about flirty people alleging
opponents of having extra marital affairs and so called Secular nostalgia.
National politics have no space in this part of country. UPA’s agenda or
corruption issues may not amuse people here. All it matters here is the
communal division created by Congress led United Democratic Front which
includes a party called Muslim League, which is addressed as the most secular
party in this great nation. Congress for keeping this ally on board even
declared a cold war against Nair Service Society (NSS) which is a body comprising Hindu
Upper caste. They also teared into Sree Narayana Dharma Parishad (SNDP)
which is the
organisation of Hindu Caste called Ezhava. Communist Party of India(Marxist) is
expected to get majority among 20 lok sabha seats. Bharatiya Janata Party, who
haven’t even opened its account in state is expected to give a tough fight in
two Constituency, Thirivananthapuram and Kasargod. Narendra Modi effect is
expected to polarise Hindu votes. The political strategy of NSS and SNDP has
got its importance. Muslim and Christian votes may consolidate with Congress. Hindutva
politics may see an
uprising in the state as there is a feeling among the majority community that
the Congress government is forgetting the theory of equality while dealing with
them. Social media is less likely to play a role in rising youth’s voice. Rahul
Gandhi may have his impact on minorities might
Majority will review him as a
tragic figure.
In Maharashtra, the entire politics is going to
witness a “Paribartan”, a dramatic change. People are amused with Narendra Modi
effect and this time a combo of BJP-SENA-MNS-RPI is expected to bag 30 of its
48 LS seats. This is interesting as the state is heading to assembly elections
later this year. Raj Tharkarey will find no problem in forming alliance with
Shiv sena as Raj is an admirer of NaMo and branding himself as a Hindutva
mascot. The state is expected to shift back to its Maratha-manoos politics
which Bal saheb Tharkarey had promoted. The state congress will have to pay for
all corruption issues including Adarsh Flat scam, and the chaos they created at
the centre. As the state has substantial amount of Urbanised population,
this will favour BJP and NaMo magic will energise the whole alliance, here
secular issues may not amuse people but development, GDP and Share Market
issues will. The
urbanised population prefer to see NaMo as a man capable of developing the
entire nation. Muslim vote consolidation may rest with INC-NCP. But recent
‘urine’ comments made by Sharad pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar might well spoil the
pie for the alliance. Recent water shortage issues and Gujarat’s
successful water management model can help NaMo. Bombay, later Mumbai has witnessed many communal
riots, thus polarising politics can well favour the saffron party.
In Delhi, Chief Minister Shiela dikshit is
expected to be on losing side this time. She won 3 times consistently, but this
time there is a certain amount of anti-incumbency. Delhi always represent
national mood and people connect over internet will find it really hard to vote
for INC. Aam aadmi Party is expected to remain silent this time. As Anna Hazare
is not amused with Kejriwal’s party and Baba Ramdev, Kiran Bedi favouring
NaMo, AAP will secure
few votes, but cannot become gamechangers. Polarisation is less likely to
happen as Communalism may not have relevance on the national capital,
development is the single best thing people may vote on and this is the single
best place where congress people failed to deliver. In Andhra
Pradesh YSR congress may
get the number but TRS might form alliance with BJP as NaMo supports telengana
state formation. Communal divisions caused by MIM may result in
reverse consolidation and TRS-BJP alliance can bring some seats and increase
its vote share.
Thus “congress-ified” states may spoil all the prospectus
of Indian National Congress or United Progressive Alliance. States other than
Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi and Maharashtra gives no hope for congress. In
Karnataka, BJP can get it all right in Urbanised areas but if BJP get
Yeddyurappa on board things may change and it will result in revival of saffron
party. Rahul magic will fail yet again and he will
be branded as a failure of all times. He does speak about changing the
system. Fine! But when it comes to doing, he fails. Even when congress-ruled-states
fail to deliver, he seems helpless. He finds no answers for those serious
questions raised on UPA’s failed 9 years. What his party lacks is “DEMOCRACY”,
the biggest dictator of all times, COMMUNIST PARTY OF CHINA replaces
President over a period of 10 years, but INC has got a serving president who
has been ruling the party for almost 15 years. But yet it is called democratic. INC’s fundamental stones
seem to be weak and for this they will have to pay a price, sitting in the
opposite cupboard for 5 years and cleaning up their own
system........................
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